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At present, the global macroeconomic environment is still complex and changeable. Although the domestic economy has generally maintained a stable recovery trend, it still faces many challenges in the context of the global economic slowdown. Although the tension of international trade has eased, uncertainty still exists, and the operating pressure of some export-oriented enterprises has not been fundamentally alleviated, which has affected the market's expectation of overall economic growth to a certain extent, and then reflected in the trend of A-share market. In addition, recent fluctuations in some macroeconomic data, such as marginal changes in manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), have also made investors more cautious in judging the economic prospects, which has become one of the deep-seated reasons for the lack of market confidence and the downward trend of the index after opening higher in the morning.(C) plate rotation and capital flow analysisThe technical forms of Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and Growth Enterprise Market Index are similar to those of Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, and they both face short-term technical adjustment pressure. Shenzhen Stock Exchange means that if the closing price of tomorrow is lower than today's low, and the technical indicators such as relative strength index (RSI) continue to weaken, it may further test the bottom area of the previous box consolidation. Growth enterprise market refers to the supporting role of its 20-day moving average after experiencing today's high opening and low going. If we can hold the moving average and some growth sectors can stop falling and stabilize, the GEM index may be able to maintain a relatively stable range fluctuation in the short term; If it falls below the moving average and the trading volume is enlarged, it may pull back to a lower level, dragging down the whole market sentiment.

On December 10, 2024, the A-share market showed a remarkable feature of high opening and low going. At the opening of the morning session, affected by various factors, the three major indexes all opened sharply higher, which once brought more optimistic expectations to market participants. However, in the following trading hours, the market momentum could not be sustained, and the index gradually fluctuated downwards, and finally closed at a relatively low level. After the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher, the upward trend was blocked and the upper shadow line was longer, indicating that the upper pressure was obvious. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index also experienced the process of falling back after opening higher, and the volume of transactions was enlarged to a certain extent in the process of falling, reflecting that the long and short differences in the market were intensified in the trading process.On December 10, 2024, the A-share market showed a remarkable feature of high opening and low going. At the opening of the morning session, affected by various factors, the three major indexes all opened sharply higher, which once brought more optimistic expectations to market participants. However, in the following trading hours, the market momentum could not be sustained, and the index gradually fluctuated downwards, and finally closed at a relatively low level. After the Shanghai Composite Index opened higher, the upward trend was blocked and the upper shadow line was longer, indicating that the upper pressure was obvious. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index also experienced the process of falling back after opening higher, and the volume of transactions was enlarged to a certain extent in the process of falling, reflecting that the long and short differences in the market were intensified in the trading process.From the technical analysis point of view, today's Shanghai Composite Index has formed a K-line shape with a long shadow line, and the trading volume has been enlarged, which indicates that there is greater pressure on the top and the market divergence has intensified. If tomorrow's index fails to effectively recover today's upper shadow line, and the trading volume continues to maintain at a relatively high level, the index may seek further support. In the short term, some important moving average positions below, such as 60-day moving average and 120-day moving average, will become key support areas. If the index can stabilize near these moving averages, and with the shrinking volume, the market is expected to enter the short-term shock consolidation stage, waiting for a new direction choice. On the other hand, if the index falls below these support levels quickly, it may trigger a new round of decline, dropping to near the previous low.

Considering the current situation of market segmentation today, tomorrow's plate rotation will play a key role in the market trend. Although the financial sector changed in early trading today, it failed to continuously lead the market to rise. If the financial sector, especially the banking and securities sector, can rise again tomorrow under the impetus of favorable policies or expected improvement of its own performance, it is expected to stabilize the market index and drive the market sentiment to rebound. For example, if there are positive signals such as the improvement of net interest margin and the improvement of asset quality in the banking sector, it will attract capital inflows and provide solid support for the upward movement of the index.From the perspective of capital flow, if the market as a whole shows a rebound trend tomorrow, it is expected that some off-exchange funds will gradually flow in, especially the institutional funds that have been waiting and seeing in the early stage may increase the allocation of high-quality blue-chip stocks and leading enterprises in growth stocks. In the process of market decline, funds may flow from the high valuation plate to the low valuation defensive plate or the early oversold plate to seek hedging and arbitrage opportunities.After today's adjustment, the trend differentiation of the technology growth sector may intensify tomorrow. Some leading enterprises with real core technology competitiveness and clear performance growth expectations may attract funds to bargain-hunting after adjustment, take the lead in stabilizing and rebounding, and drive the overall popularity of the science and technology sector to rebound; And some small and medium-sized technology stocks that lack performance support and rely only on concept speculation may continue to face downward pressure. In addition, as a long-term stable force in the A-share market, the consumer sector is often more defensive when the market fluctuates greatly. If the overall market sentiment is still cautious tomorrow, the food and beverage, medicine and biology sub-sectors in the consumer sector are expected to continue to gain the favor of funds and maintain a relatively stable trend, which will play a certain supporting role in the index.